Nigeria’s investment landscape is gearing up for a fresh chapter in 2026, driven by a mix of economic stabilisation, important reforms, and changing capital market dynamics. After years of challenges like currency fluctuations, high inflation, and shaky investor confidence, recent government moves are starting to reshape risk perceptions and reopen doors for both local and foreign investors.

Perspectives from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), alongside views from market analysts and capital markets practitioners, point to Nigeria operating in 2026 with a clearer reform trajectory and a gradually improving macro-financial investment framework, despite lingering structural constraints. The direction of travel suggests a shift from policy uncertainty toward greater credibility and investability.

Setting the Stage: Economic Reforms That Matter

Nigeria’s reform efforts now focus on boosting productivity and encouraging investment-led growth. The CBN’s plan rests on four key pillars: fixing foreign exchange policies, revamping taxes, recapitalising banks and reforming the energy sector.

These changes aim to reduce uncertainty, improve market pricing, stabilise the FX market, create a transparent tax system, and make it easier to do business. The goal is to help companies run more efficiently, boost export potential, cut costs, increase credit access and ultimately raise the economy’s productivity.

In the short term, these reforms are expected to increase public and private investments, attracting more capital inflows. Over time, greater investment in tradable goods, manufacturing, processing and infrastructure should help shift the economy towards more productive sectors, supporting stronger and more sustainable growth.

Capital Market: On the Brink of Something Big

Nigeria’s capital market may be approaching a structural inflection point in 2026. Market assessments highlight the potential listings of Dangote Group entities and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC)—with a combined estimated valuation of approximately ₦263 trillion, as potentially transformative developments.

Market capitalisation is estimated to close at around ₦98 trillion in 2025, with these listings capable of more than quadrupling overall market size in 2026. While the immediate impact on headline equity indices may be limited, the implications for market depth, liquidity and sectoral diversification would be substantial, particularly in attracting foreign portfolio participation, subject to the level of free float.

Beyond scale, capital markets practitioners emphasise the signalling effect of such listings. International experience—most notably Saudi Aramco’s listing—demonstrates how the inclusion of globally relevant energy and industrial assets can anchor markets within global indices, structurally increasing foreign allocations. A comparable outcome for Nigeria would materially strengthen market credibility, enhance global visibility and reduce reliance on short-term and volatile capital flows.

FX Reforms: Opening Doors for Foreign Investors

Foreign exchange reforms remain central to Nigeria’s improving investment narrative. The transition toward market-based FX pricing, improved liquidity management, and clearer repatriation mechanisms has reduced uncertainty and improved price discovery across markets.

Market analysts suggest that renewed foreign interest has, so far, been concentrated in short-term instruments, including sovereign debt and tradable equities, rather than long-term foreign direct investment. This sequencing is consistent with global investment patterns, where capital typically enters liquid markets first before transitioning into longer-dated, less reversible commitments.

Capital market practitioners observe that Nigeria has moved from being largely uninvestable for many global investors to a market where risk can again be priced. Policy credibility, consistency, and transparency—rather than headline returns alone—are driving this reassessment. Over time, sustained portfolio inflows are expected to catalyse deeper foreign direct investment, particularly if reform momentum is maintained.

Sectoral Opportunities and Investment Themes

Non-oil sector expansion continues to underpin Nigeria’s medium-term growth outlook, though the capacity to absorb capital at scale varies across sectors. While telecommunications and financial services have supported recent growth, construction and infrastructure services are increasingly viewed as the next major drivers of investment activity, reflecting Nigeria’s significant infrastructure deficit and the scale of financing required.

Unlike telecommunications, where investable platforms are relatively limited, construction and infrastructure offer broader opportunities for large-ticket funding, public-private partnership (PPP) structures and long-dated capital deployment. These sectors are expected to benefit directly from higher capital spending and reform-driven improvements in the business environment.

Other sectors expected to attract investor interest include real estate, food and beverage, and trade, supported by demographics, urbanisation, and consumption trends. However, sustained expansion in these areas will depend on inflation moderation, improved real incomes and productivity gains. Financial services remain central to this ecosystem, as credit-driven growth is expected to act as a key enabler across multiple sectors.