General Election And The Capital Market

General elections and the impact on the capital market

The perceptible concern and uncertainty of a general election in any country pose economic and political risks to the nation. Nigerians are expected to go the polls in the first quarter of 2023.

The Nigerian capital market is heavily saturated with institutional players, who consist mostly of pension fund administrators, insurance companies, and other financial services companies looking to augment their income from the fixed-income market.

The influence of a general election on the capital market will be characterised by investor uncertainty. Foreign portfolio investments declined in equity, bond, and money market instruments in 2022. Analysts foresee a continuous decline as the general election puts foreign investors on alert, resulting in a reduction in foreign capital inflows and lower liquidity.

Heightened political expenses is also expected to divert money from owners of capital to consumers as money flows away from investment to consumption.

Each of the three prominent presidential candidates is expected to implement a free-market  economy. One of them plans to drive GDP to 10.0% annually through economic diversification, expansion of the oil and gas sector with special focus on LNG production, and support export programs and policies to boost local investment and promote regional trade.

Another aims to create a market-based economy driven by medium-and small-scale businesses. This will be achieved by making agriculture a major source of foreign exchange earnings, employment, and industrialisation and by increasing the level of petroleum reserves.

The third promises to diversify the economy away from reliance on oil and gas towards agriculture and service industries, restore the central bank’s independence, create jobs and provide fiscal incentives to encourage the development of the manufacturing industry. 

Ultimately, it is expected that a new Government will usher in a new economic direction for the country.


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